So you like reading about trades huh? Want to know if I think you won or lost your trade? Send me a tweet – @MillerBadger – and I promise to respond with a GIF of my thoughts on your swap. Before we dive into the targets this week, let’s take a quick look at my takes from last week:
The Buy Low List:
- Rob Gronkowski – Back in the top 12, but still not a dominant performance. I am still buying.
- Dalvin Cook – Still frustratingly working through injury. I’m no longer actively trading for Cook, though I still like his future.
- Joe Mixon – It will be too late to buy him now. He looks like a legit RB1 when he plays. Mixon has seen 22, 22, & 25 touches in the three games he’s played, and he handled 78% of Bengals snaps in Week 5. Lock and load. He’s legit.
- Doug Baldwin – Bad numbers, but positive outlook. See below on why I’m still buying.
- Le’Veon Bell – Only one more week of Pittsburgh games before he comes back… according to him. Owners who have held on this long aren’t trading him now.
- OBJ – There’s the Odell we expected. Plus a little more with that sexy TD pass on the trickery. More of that innovation please.
- Kerryon Johnson – Where are his touches? The talent is there. I’m still buying.
- Aaron Rodgers / Tom Brady – Yum. The QB1 and QB2 on the week were worth those trade offers you sent.
- Keenan Allen – All the targets, all the catches, still not in the end zone. Get him while you can.
The Sell High List:
- Calvin Ridley – Back to Earth for this guy. Only 4 catches, 38 yards, no touchdowns.
- Lamar Miller – Didn’t even play. You can’t get anything for him at this point.
- Eric Ebron – He’s worth holding until Doyle returns, but he could also net you substantially more in a trade now than in other situations.
Again, I’d call that a fairly successful week… then again, when you’re out to get the studs, it should pan out well. I would also like to point out that analyzing only one week of a trade is not the way to go, it’s about the season-long value you’re getting. With that said, who is on my buy list this week?
Who to Buy Low after Week Five
Doug Baldwin jumps from a questionable buy low to my number one target. Baldwin played on 88% of snaps in Week 5, (most among WRs). Per my favorite Twitter analyst, @FriscoJosh, Baldwin was projected to score 11.4 points based on his Air Yards – 10 more than what he actually produced for you. He also has been as great an end of season performer as there is in the league the past three years.
Patrick Mahomes. I said he was a sell high two weeks ago, and now you want me to go out and buy him? Hear me out. Mahomes has had a pair of very difficult tests in back-to-back weeks, and he was still a decent start in those games. He was also the first QB to throw for 300+ yards against the Jags in 15 weeks, (thanks @SarahSpain). Finishing the week as a middling QB likely didn’t cost the Mahomes owner the week, but this return to Earth after last week’s middling output may frustrate an owner enough to part with the potentially match-up proof QB. If you can trust a guy against the best D in the NFL, you can trust him all year.
Corey Clement. With Jay Ajayi on the shelf for the year with an ACL tear… Clement is in line for touches and value. He won’t cost much and is a great “throw-in” guy in a 2-for-2 trade. You could easily end up with the two best guys in a trade like this: Keenan/Clement for Robert Woods/Chris Thompson or something similar. Wendell Smallwood went quicker on the waiver wire, but I like Clement ROS.
Jordan Reed is another favorite target of mine this week. Reed is healthy (it’s great!) and is seeing good opportunity through four played weeks (WAS had the Week 4 Bye). He’s also coming off a down performance, where he only caught one of two targets. The first three weeks, however, Reed averaged over 6 targets with a 50%+ catch rate.
Quincy Enunwa & Antonio Callaway – These are deeper league trade targets. I’ll give you the case for each. Enunwa, up until last week, had been the steadiest player for the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets!, JETS! … when all that came crashing to the ground in a bagel performance – a demonstration of defunct play that cost one in five owners as he was started in more than 20% of leagues). But it wasn’t all Enunwa’s fault. Two deep TDs to teammate Robby Anderson put ends to a pair of drives, and coverage from Chris Harris Jr. throughout the game in the slot made the windows a bit tighter for Darnold than in previous games. I except him to return to value in PPR leagues especially. Similarly, Callaway has been presented with a great opportunity in Cleveland. Outside of Landry, the pass catchers simply aren’t standing out – Njoku shows promise and Rishard Higgins is intriguing but injured, leaving Callaway the man to buy. If he can start holding onto balls (12.5% drop rate so far), then his top flight speed combined with more and more looks from Mayfield should create fantasy relevance. He’s also a Jarvis Landry injury away from being the #1. Buying him where I can in deeper leagues.
Gronk – I know I mentioned Gronk above… but I will always trade for Gronk. Sorry, not sorry.
Don’t Trade Drunk, Do Sell High on Players
Demaryius Thomas isn’t the same player anymore. He isn’t seeing quality targets in Denver, where Sanders has caught the eye of Case Keenum, and a trio of rookies are seeing a high percentage of targets, (Royce Freeman, Philip Lindsay, and Courtland Sutton). He was also outsnapped by one of those promising rookies, as Sutton played on You might be able to ship him off after a 5 catch, 105-yard performance that included a trip to the end zone.
Isaiah Crowell was a Sell High before, and he’s still a Sell High for me today. He only had 15 carries, but a 77-yard TD run will help get you to a career-high and franchise-record 219 rushing yards. I still don’t love this NYJ offense, and if you can get a similarly-scoring player for Crowell, I’d do it. That said, anyone can help you win a fantasy season, and it’s your team, so if you’d prefer to simply ride the cro-SWELL wave, I can’t and won’t stop you.
Kenyan Drake is a sell high if I’ve ever seen one. He was a guy I didn’t like coming into the season, for a variety of reasons, but mostly because he reminded me of Zac Stacy finding success late in the year for a bad team then never returning to that form. While that wasn’t an apt equivalent, Drake has definitely disappointed owners this season – enough so that his start rate in ESPN leagues was under 40% for his Week 5 performance. How bummed are you to not have started him? But who could blame you? Get the headache off your roster this week… it’s the chance to talk him up. Just know this… he’s still playing fewer snaps than Frank Gore… and because Adam Gase is just dull, I don’t see that changing.
Sorry… but that’s what I have for you this week. Good luck finding new trade partners, and may you always start the right guys. Though let’s face it… you won’t.
As always, go tell your friends… or don’t.