This article was initially intended to be chalk plays to fade, but to be honest, I really don’t think there are enough chalk fades to justify an article. I also don’t enjoy looking stupid. Instead, the following will focus on why the chalk is indeed chalk, projecting ownership for those plays, and providing alternative, lower cost options if you should decide to invest your fantasy dollars elsewhere in your line-ups.
CHALK: DAL RB EZEKIEL ELLIOT (FD: $8,900, DK $9,000)
Zeke is back after another temporary court victory that has dominated headlines. His ownership will be through the roof, with ownership likely hanging around an egregiously high 30-35%. There is good reason for this, as Elliot has returned to playing shape in the last three weeks with rushing yard totals of 116, 147, and 150 with 5 total touchdowns.
Additionally, the Kansas City Chiefs are bleeding rushing yards, ranking 28th in the league for yards per game (131.1) with an egregious three game stretch (153).
COUNTER: NO RB MARK INGRAM (FD $7,900, DK $7,600)
Ingram will be on a short leash with low ownership after fumbling twice in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears last week. Last year Ingram was benched for a similar fumbling issue against the Seahawks and the very next week turned in a redeeming performance against the San Francisco 49ers (15/158/1).
With Ingram heavily motivated to stave off rookie RB Alvin Kamara, who has seen his touches increase recently, Ingram could bust out with another huge game. Make no mistake, this is a gamble. If Ingram fumbles, he’s likely benched. Be proactive and get some insurance by plugging in Kamara into other line-ups as a low-cost play, seeing as this tilt against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is expected with be a shoot-out.
CHALK: SEA QB RUSSELL WILSON (FD $8,500, DK $7,400)
Missing run game, Wilson has thrown 37, 39, and 41 times with 8 touchdowns in the last three weeks. Don’t expect that do change against the Washington Redskins. Wilson will likely possess 15-20% ownership and is always dangerous to produce big results.
If you decide to fade Wilson, you should at the very least plug WR Doug Baldwin and the other Seahawk threats into your line-ups.
COUNTER: CAR QB CAM NEWTON (FD $7,600, DK $6,300)
Newton has had a rocky season and will likely be owned far less than Wilson, Drew Brees, Alex Smith and Dak Prescott. He has shown a high ceiling with two games of 3 touchdowns and 300 yards, but has had three games with no touchdowns and three multiple INT games. On the plus side, Cam has raised his floor by taking off more, averaging 10 carries and 55 yards over the last three weeks and a rushing touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6.
Having traded WR Kelvin Benjamin, low-cost WR Devin Funchess is a solid stack play against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed 20+ points in 6 straight games.
CHALK: SEA TE JIMMY GRAHAM (FD $6,200, DK $5,000)
I wrote about Graham as a DFS Play to Trust, and I meant it, there is a good reason for him garnering +20% ownership this week, but if you go with pricier options at other positions and need an affordable contrarian play, consider this Washington Redskin…
COUNTER: WAS TE VERNON DAVIS (FD $5,400, DK $4,100)
With Redskins TE Jordan Reed and WR Jameson Crowder out against the Seahawks, Davis is solid option that should see plenty of work. When Reed is out, Davis has hit 5+ receptions in 3 of 5 games. Averaging a monster 18.4 yards per catch for the season, Davis has also hit north of 50 yards in 4 of 7 games. The Seahawks will likely be without FS Earl Thomas (hamstring), further adding to Davis’ value.