Due to some technical difficulties, Week 4 bold moves are unavailable. Going back to Week 3, we watched some of the most surprising fantasy performances in recent memory unfold. Devonta Freeman led all players in fantasy points, with Steve Smith, Andy Dalton, Chris Johnson (CJ2k?) and Rishard Matthews all scoring a ton of points. Week 3 personally hurt me, which is why I’m glad to have forgotten it. Here’s a recap of my week three wins/losses.
LeGarrette Blount over DeMarco Murray
Jeremy Hill over Matt Forte, Davante Adams over Steve Smith, Markus Wheaton over Travis Benjamin, Kansas City Chiefs DEF over St Louis Rams DEF
Drew Brees (late scratch) over Matt Ryan, Tyrod Taylor over Cam Newton, Shane Vereen over Lamar Miller, Roddy White over Jordan Matthews, Eric Ebron over Jason Witten, Heath Miller over Martellus Bennett, Cleveland Browns DEF over Miami Dolphins DEF
Poor effort for week three going 1-4-7. This brings my overall record to 10-13-13. Lots of pushes, which is okay, but 13 missed opportunities could hurt.
Let’s take a peek at Week 5’s weekend and Monday night match-ups. Due to less overall match-ups, there will may be a reduction in bold move opportunities:
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears over Andy Dalton,Cincinnati Bengals
Sure Dalton has had the hot hand and the Bengals look like they may be the best team in the AFC North. But Andy Dalton’s not Mr. Consistency and he will start to decline soon. What better a week against the Seahawks defense (who hasn’t been as good as recent years, but still should be effective). Jay Cutler will have to throw the ball to win and should get Alshon Jeffery back against a Chiefs defense that has given up big plays over the top. Interceptions are prevalent in Cutler’s world, however.
Michael Vick, Pittsburgh Steelers over Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Vick really did not look good throwing the ball down field last week, but he does get Martavis Bryant back, another week with the starting offense and still has Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell who will rack up yardage and scores. Mariota faces a tough Bills defense. Mariota is currently being graded as a top tier QB2 in many rankings, but I don’t see him having the same luck in Week 5.
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars over Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys
Don’t fall for that three TD performance that Randle had in Week 3. We know he’s chalk full of ability, but Christine Michael will soon be getting more and more reps, IMO. Not to mention, the Patriots defense this week does not do the Brandon Weeden-led Cowboys any favors. Look for Yeldon to get his first TD of the season and finish in double digits against Tampa Bay this week.
Anthony “Boobie” Dixon, Buffalo Bills over Dion Lewis, New England Patriots
This is a big risk as Lewis has been great in New England. I’m thinking that Lewis still gets plenty of touches, but struggles against the Cowboys, where LeGarrette Blount looks to steal red zone work. Dixon is a power back that may not get you 120 yards, but I’m feeling a two TD performance with 50+ yards assuming he gets the bulk of the carries with Karlos Williams likely out.
Rueben Randle, New York Giants over James Jones, Green Bay Packers
I’m really liking Randle’s ability to make plays, and have been waiting for him to play consistently well for two seasons now. Teams are doubling up Beckham on the other side, creating targets for Randle. James Jones is consistent in the Green Bay offense, but I think that this St. Louis Rams defense will keep him out of the end zone this week. The Rams defense can play at a very high level. If they do their work, they can keep the Packers moderately contained.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars over Golden Tate, Detroit Lions
Tate hasn’t done much so far this season and faces a very tough Arizona defense in Week 5. I’m not seeing anything from this Lions offense to suggest that they’re capable of consistently putting up 30+ at this point, especially against one of the best defenses in the league. Robinson gets a light secondary in Tampa Bay guarding him over the top while Allen Hurns is a bit banged up. Blake Bortles hasn’t looked half bad to start the season overall.
Derek Carrier, Washington Redskins over Owen Daniels, Denver Broncos
Peyton Manning hasn’t needed to throw four and five touchdowns a game for the Broncos to win, which is why I think Owen Daniels goes without a score against an inconsistent Oakland Raiders defense. Derek Carrier has minimal experience but will start in place of Jordan Reed who’s banged up. Carrier can catch the ball a bit and has long arms in the red zone. Kirk Cousins isn’t afraid to utilize his TE’s.
San Diego Chargers over Green Bay Packers
The Chargers have showed signs that they can get to the quarterback, Pittsburgh’s offensive line struggles in pass protection and Michael Vick can turn the ball over. Green Bay faces a St. Louis offense that just watched Todd Gurley go off, while Nick Foles has been moderately efficient over the top.
San Francisco 49ers over Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is a trendy pickup this week for defenses. They’re coming off a huge week and head home to face the Redskins this week who watches Kirk Cousins lose the ball often. But I still think that they give up 28+ points in this game and struggle to consistently get to the quarterback. On the other hand, the 49ers defense can still make plays and Eli is a risk taker who throws into traffic. Taking a gamble here.