I think most of us remember how Green Bay’s season ended last year. If you forgot, remember the playoffs in Seattle? 5:00 minutes to go? Onside kick? Seattle comes back to win in overtime? That’s why they play the games people. Anything can happen.
So now that I’ve angered all you Packers fans by bringing this up, let’s move on. Oh…wait….it’s already sour with the loss of WR Jordy Nelson in a meaningless preseason game. Sorry…..I’m just getting all the crap over with.
Ok……August 26th, 2015…..nothing else has happened right? Let’s start from here shall we? It just seems like the Packers have the injury spell on them to start this season so please pick your Packers with caution. To be honest, even with the loss of Nelson, Green Bay is still primed for big things this season.
QB – Aaron Rodgers
What can I say but he’s the best QB in the league. I don’t care what anyone says. This guy is a true STUD for fantasy football. You know the production you’ll get out of him and that you just set him in the QB spot week after week; doesn’t matter. What you have to figure out is what is his value to determine when you should draft him. He’s being valued as #23 Overall and being drafted around 11th on average (ADP). While he is the best QB to have, the QB crop is very deep this year. This means that there are other guys at the WR, RB positions you may want to take first. 11th is a little high for me as I think his value is correct around late second round to early third round.
Even with the loss of Nelson, Rodgers has plenty of weapons to get the ball to; as are listed below. The deep ball TD’s should be expected to go down but that’s really about it. He’s still the best guy to have at QB. Hands Down!
RB – Eddie Lacy
Lacy checks in this year as one of the top fantasy options at RB. He’s a 1000 yard rusher and a north/south one at that so you know he gets goal line work as well. That’s a huge plus at RB. He’s going to average around 15 – 20 touches per game and he’ll get you points pretty much every game. He’ll get a few tosses out of the backfield on screen plays but don’t expect a ton of that. His average was about 3 receptions per game with a high of 8. We really shouldn’t expect those numbers to change that much.
His only question is durability. Lacy takes a pounding and gets beat up pretty well; which is true for any workhorse RB in the NFL. With Nelson out, I’d expect the Packers to lean on Lacy a little more in the gameplan. He’ll be a 1,000 yard rusher again and I’d expect the Td’s to go up top around 12.
RB – James Starks
As long as Lacy is healthy, Starks will be limited to around 5 touches per game. He’s pretty much your third down back in Green Bay’s offense but the guy you have to have as a handcuff with Lacy. Remember the concern with Lacy is durability so if he goes down the value of Starks skyrockets. When he’s had the opportunity to fill in, he’s been very good. If you have Lacy you should have Starks as well.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb becomes the security blanket for Aaron Rodgers. Cobb is the typical slot receiver but can play at any WR position. He’s extremely fast with great hands. Last season, Cobb had 91/1287/12. Fantastic year. However, the loss of Nelson shifts to focal point to Cobb as the most dangerous WR threat. So, though Cobb will probably demand more looks, he will probaby demand more double coverage. By no means does this mean you can’t draft him; far from it. I’m fairly certain Mike McCarthy can figure out ways to get him the ball. It just makes it tougher for him to make the big breakaway plays. It’s no stretch to think that Cobb can put up numbers just shy of last year. A small drop in production but still a great fantasy option at WR.
WR – Davante Adams
Here’s the guy who’s value jumps with the loss of Nelson. As a rookie last year, Adams saw a decent amount of targets and showed a ton of promise. He had 38/446/3 as a rookie and had a huge game against Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. He’s shown he can play and now he’ll get the opportunity. The big question is where to draft him now. Nelson, as a proven player, was a mid to second round choice all day. A somewhat unproven Adams with tremendous upside makes me say he gets up in the late round 4 range. People may think that’s high but he’s going to get a ton of targets from the best QB in the league…I like that.
WR – Ty Montgomery and Jeff Janis
Montgomery is a rookie out of Stanford and reports are giving Montgomery solid grades at camp. Janis is in his 2nd season and turned a few heads as a rookie with his play at camp. Both of these guys are going to get some opportunities now that Adams will ultimately be the guy to move up the depth chart in Nelson’s place. The mere fact that they both play in an offense with Aaron Rodgers demands that you keep tabs on them. Either one could be the sleeper in waiting in this offense and be the steal of the year off the waiver wire.
TE – Richard Rodgers
Rodgers is in his second season and has been growing the trust of QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been listed on the depth chart as the #1 TE. Aaron Rodgers has typically relied on his TE’s in the past and anyone catching passes in this offense is relevent. He’ll be battling Andrew Quarless for time; who could dig into his reps and value. One guy will probably emerge as a favorite of QB Rodgers and I would guess the guy that gets the most redzone reps is the guy you want.
TE – Andrew Quarless
Very athletic TE with good size. He’s going to get around 4 targets per game but that number could rise with the Nelson injury. Rodgers will use his TE effectively; especially in the redzone. Quarless will be able to earn Rodgers’ trust early in the year and be a solid option. This guy could be a very sneaky grab in later rounds.
Green Bay ranked 15th in total defense last season. They ranked 21st in sacks with 30, 15th in fumbles with 14 and last in interceptions with 6. They also ranked 13th in points per game given up with 21.8. Greeen Bay won’t really wow you defensively as they typically outscore their opponents. They’re pretty much gonna be an option on the waiver wire in a good matchup.