I don’t care what anyone says. Fading in daily fantasy sports is a total art. And it also can be a curse. Last week I faded Antonio Brown, seemingly wisely, because Ben Roethlisberger was out. When Big Ben didn’t play this year, Brown was far from elite. When he did, he was awesome. I went with that logic and the powers that be decided to flip the script.
Roethslisberger was actually made active for the game as Pittsburgh’s main backup quarterback and when starter Landry Jones got hurt, he came in and put up almost 400 passing yards. Brown was naturally one of his favorite targets, as he piled on over 100 yards and two scores.
Ouch, right? Yeah, but fading can still work out beautifully. Like two weeks ago if you faded Rob Gronkowski’s $8k salary at DraftKings, you didn’t have to sit though his weak 8.7 fantasy point dud. Or if you faded Aaron Rodgers three weeks ago against an at the time brutal Broncos defense – that also worked out.
For whatever reason, every week there are guys you at least have to consider shying away from completely. Here are 6 guys I’m probably avoiding at all costs in DFS in week 11:
Note: All pricing from DraftKings.com.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons ($7.1k)
The Colts at home should be a decent enough matchup, but I’m not finding Ryan to be a guy who is very good at taking advantage of matchups lately. He had a pretty nice week eight performance (25 fantasy points), but hasn’t topped 20 fantasy points in any other game since week three. That certainly isn’t encouraging. He’s not insanely expensive and I’m not sure people will be overly drawn to him anyways, but I’m not into paying for his lethargic production. He’s capable of making me look like a fool, but with 19 or fewer fantasy points in five of his last six games, he’s the one that has been looking rather silly.
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals ($6.6k)
Dalton tanked last week and we probably should have seen it coming. For one, he had been ablaze and the Bengals of all teams were undefeated. Then he gets a huge game against the Texans, a team he’s beaten once in his last five tries. Now he’s on the road against a good Cardinals defense. I don’t like what I saw last week and I certainly don’t like the matchup. I’m also suddenly thinking of the old Andy Dalton. It’s amazing how quickly my confidence in Dalton was destroyed, but I’m still aware this game could turn into a lethal shootout. And he’s not too expensive to test that theory. But with so much value at quarterback, I’m just not interested in pulling the trigger on the Red Rifle this week.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons ($8.4k)
I have nothing against Freeman. He’s awesome, in fact. The dude just finds a way to produce. His last game, for instance, he got totally shut down (12 rushing yards on 12 carries) but made up for it with a 8-67-1 line as a receiver. You can probably rely on that, too, if you really wanted to. A matchup with the Colts’ weak defense certainly doesn’t thwart the “start Devonta” logic, either. But the price, my friends, THE PRICE. I’m not into paying that much for what we’ve been getting lately, which has been 18-21 fantasy points. That’s not bad at all, but there is insane value at the position and I’d much rather spend all of the money at another position. Adrian Peterson is just $6.8k and Charcandrick West is somehow $4.5k. I’m not paying for Freeman.
Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams ($7.6k)
Okay, so Gurley is human. He’s now had two games below 100 rushing yards and suddenly I’m bailing on him. Not really. There’s very good reason to shy away from him and it’s as simple as these three annoying tidbits: quarterback change, price and matchup. His mild regression is there for all to see, but the Rams don’t have a quarterback (or a passing game, for that matter), Gurley has seen a price spike and he faces a pretty good Ravens run defense on the road. I don’t like any of that, and as I said, there is pretty good value at running back in week 11.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans ($8.8k)
Nuk is just too pricey. I’m game for Julio Jones at $9.3k, but he’s the only elite wide receiver I’m paying for. A few reasons: Brian Hoyer is out, Hopkins disappeared for an entire half last week and this week he draws Darrelle Revis and the Jets. I don’t think Gang Green is unbeatable or anything and Nuk can probably destroy anyone, but there’s no hiding that none of this creates an ideal situation. Like running back, there is a ton of value at wide receiver this week. I don’t really need to pay up for Nuk to feel good about the position.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals ($5.9k)
Running back and wide receiver are loaded with value. You know what isn’t? Tight end. A lot of the tight ends are hurt, have bad matchups or have just been total turds. Eifert was of the turd variety last week, as he dropped three catchable passes and Andy Dalton missed him on a streak route that probably would have gone for a long touchdown. As a guy who had an awesome team and just needed Eifert to not suck to make bank last week – FRICKITY, FRICK, FRICK.
Eifert is an exceptional talent and a major red-zone threat. But he sucked last week and is now on the road against a good Arizona defense. Said AZ defense is specifically a big bowl of annoying when it comes to their allowance of fantasy points to the tight end position, too. I don’t really like Bengals options in general this week and I definitely don’t like Eifert. I’m probably paying up for Gronk and finding value elsewhere – you know, where it EXISTS.
Hopefully my insight sheds some light on some plays you may not want to use. If it ever has or currently does and you haven’t jumped into the daily fantasy football scene yet, feel free to sign up at DraftKings and ball out in week 11. If it’s your first time and you make a deposit, we both get a FREE entry into their Millionaire Maker game.