We’re constantly searching for that awesome gem in daily fantasy football leagues, or that insane value play that we simply cannot possibly pass up. Last week Los Angeles Rams star running back Todd Gurley looked to be the part. He was just $5.3k on DraftKings and despite a tough matchup with a stout New York Jets run defense, he simply felt like too good of a value.
He didn’t end up panning out, as he mustered just 8 fantasy points on 22 total touches and didn’t score. New York’s staunch run defense lived up to the hype in that one, despite Gurley and the Rams grinding just enough to muster out an ugly win.
Going into week 11, that value we saw in Gurley a week ago gets even more appealing, as he’s even cheaper ($5k) as he prepares for a winnable date with the Miami Dolphins.
There is no denying Gurley has endured stacked boxes, poor run-blocking and terrible quarterback play, but few can argue that one of the league’s more talented rushers is flat out due.
That line of thinking can undoubtedly get us all into trouble, but let’s face reality: Gurley only needs one big run to pay off or 1/2 short TD plunges. And he’s about the same price as guys like Frank Gore and Theo Riddick.
Those two have been better than Gurley in 2016, but on a week to week basis, the gap isn’t wide. In fact, while not providing us with the upside we had hoped, Gurley has at least been ridiculously consistent for much of the year, churning out 10+ fantasy points at DraftKings six times.
Gurley has a better matchup in week 11 than he’s seen in some time. Miami has improved defensively during a four-game winning streak, but they still awarded 18 fantasy points to Melvin Gordon last week and on the year are still giving up an average of 15 fantasy points to the running back position.
That doesn’t mean Gurley is for sure going to blow up, but he’s getting closer and this might be the softest matchup he’s seen in a long while. It also can’t hurt that Gurley is at home, where he fares just a little bit better (13 fantasy points per game). We know the role and talent are there. With this price, it’s time to ride Gurley to NFL DFS success in week 11.