Football is back! With the preseason under way, fantasy players are doing mock drafts hourly (or maybe it’s just me) to prepare for their fantasy drafts. Each year fantasy owners want to construct their team with a proper mix of good value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential. In part six of my eight part installment, I will look over the AFC North and provide ADP values, likely to bust candidates and potential sleepers.

Players ADP is based off of PPR scoring according to the fantasy football calculator. Remember you can practice for your fantasy drafts using the mock draft simulator. Check out the previous installment here. As always, happy hunting fantasy friends!

ADP Values

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts (3.04) – Despite not having Andrew Luck last season, T.Y. Hilton finished as the WR27. However, 50% of his fantasy points came in three games. Now with Luck returning and looking like his old form, Hilton should return to elite fantasy production. Currently Hilton is being drafted as the WR12, yet in 2016 he finished the year as the WR5 while leading the league in receiving yards.

Over the last three seasons that Luck has been healthy, Hilton has averaged 141.7 targets per season. During those three seasons, Hilton had easily the highest target share on the Colts.

Year

Hilton’s Target Share %

Next Highest Target Share %

2016

26.6%

Jack Doyle 12.9%

2014

19.8%

Reggie Wayne 17.6%

2013

23.7%

Coby Fleener 15%

Assuming Luck is back to his old form, Hilton will lead his team in target share by a wide margin this season and has top five wide receiver upside, while being a lock for a WR1 finish.

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts (8.06) – With Andrew Luck it comes down to his health. After missing all of last season with a shoulder injury he suffered in 2016, Luck has looked solid in the preseason. Luck has looked good enough that he should be in the conversation as the second quarterback drafted behind Aaron Rodgers. Since 2013, removing the two seasons Luck missed serious time with injuries in — 2015 and last season — he has finished as the QB4 or higher every year in four-point-per-passing-touchdown leagues.

Even assuming Luck is healthy, some fantasy experts have concerns about his supporting cast. However, looking at Luck’s seasons where he finished as the QB4 or higher, he lacked a great supporting cast and still put up elite fantasy production.

Year

Luck’s Finish

Top 30 RBs

Top 48 WRs

Top 18 TEs

2013

QB4

Donald Brown RB28

T.Y. Hilton WR18

Coby Fleener TE 14

2014

QB2

Ahmad Bradshaw RB22

T.Y. Hilton WR12

Coby Fleener TE7

2016

QB4

Frank Gore RB12

T.Y. Hilton WR5

Jack Doyle TE13

To be clear, in Luck’s three best fantasy seasons he has a RB1 just once, a WR1 twice, and a TE1 only once. Luck doesn’t need elite talent to produce fantasy points. As long as T.Y. Hilton is there, Luck can make due with the other average pieces as part of the offense. The Colts currently have the best offensive line Luck has ever played with, and spent six of their 11 draft picks on the offensive side of the ball, including two of their top three picks on offensive lineman. If he’s back to his old form, drafting Luck at his current ADP as the QB9 is a steal!

Busts

Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans (5.01) – On a points-per-game basis, Watson was the QB1 last season; averaging 24.1 FPPG. Currently Watson is being drafted as the QB2, and while I understand the argument for him to be the second quarterback drafted, he shouldn’t be a top 60 pick. While Watson’s performance was great before he torn his ACL in practice, he can’t be expected to repeat what he did last season.

In seven games last season, Watson threw for 19 touchdowns. However, Watson threw just one touchdown in the second half against the Jaguars in the season opener and then none in his first start against the Bengals in week two. Then he went on to throw 18 touchdowns in five games; averaging 3.6 passing touchdowns per game during that span. Had Watson continued that pace for a full 16 game slate, he would have thrown for 58 touchdowns, breaking Peyton Manning’s record of 55 in 2013.

Watson’s 19 passing touchdowns counted for 45% of his fantasy points in a four-point-per-passing-touchdown scoring system. By comparison, Russell Wilson led all quarterbacks in passing touchdowns and fantasy points last season, and his 34 passing touchdowns counted for 39% of his fantasy points. Watson should be a top-five quarterback drafted this year, but if you are expecting his great numbers from last season, be prepared for disappointment.

Jaguars D/ST (8.11) – Little fun fact: the Jaguars D/ST scored more fantasy points than Zach Ertz last season. While the Jaguars have the best defense in the league and the best D/ST — much like I mentioned in the NFC North installment with the Vikings D/ST — no D/ST should be picked this high, no matter how good they are. With any D/ST, you want to target one that gets a lot of sacks, turnovers and touchdowns.

Last season the Jaguars ranked second in sacks, second in interceptions, tied for fourth in fumble recoveries, and tied for second in total turnovers while leading the league with eight touchdowns between the defense and special teams. As much as everyone loves the Jaguars defense (rightfully so), they did get three and a half games against the Texans and Colts without Deshaun Watson or Andrew Luck under center. While I still believe the Jaguars D/ST should be the first one drafted, I’m not taking any D/ST before the 10th round.

Sleepers

Keelan Cole, WR, Jaguars (11.08) – After Marqise Lee was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury, many expect Keelan Cole to have a break-out season. And they are right. Last season, Cole finished as the WR48; averaging 8.3 FPPG. Yet, he was the Jaguars second-highest fantasy scoring wide receiver, only behind Lee; averaging just 2.3 FPPG less than Lee. While the team did sign Donte Moncrief this off-season, Cole is still the only Jaguars wide receiver I am drafting this year.

Cole was the only wide receiver to play in all 16 games for the Jaguars last season, and finished second on the team with a 15.8% target share; only behind Lee. Cole tied for the team lead (along with Lee) in receiving touchdowns among wide receivers. However, to close out last season, Cole was starting to take over the number one wide receiver role from Lee.

Lee missed the final two games of last season with an injury, while Cole averaged five catches on 10.5 targets for 70.5 yards and 11.1 FPPG during those games. Furthermore, from week 13 through 17, Cole averaged 17.3 FPPG while getting 20.6% target share and scored all three of his touchdowns. Currently, Cole is being drafted as the WR51; however, over the last week, Cole’s ADP has jumped over three rounds. Fantasy owners should grab Cole, as he is a wide receiver lottery ticket.

Rishard Matthews, WR, Titans (14.10) – Many — including myself — are on the Corey Davis hype train. However, his teammate is the much better value. Last season, Rishard Matthews finished as the WR37; averaging 11.2 FPPG. Despite the Titans ranking 28th in the league in passing attempts and 23rd in passing yards, Matthews still ranked tied for 42nd in catches and 28th in receiving yards among wide receivers.

Last season, Matthews finished as a WR3 or better in 42.9% of his games. Corey Davis missed five games last season with a hamstring injury and has battled injuries during training camp. If Davis goes down with another injury, Matthews takes over as the number one wide receiver. Matt LaFleur is the Titans new offensive coordinator, after holding the same position with the Rams last season. Matthews has recently said how he likes how LaFleur will utilize him in the offense.

Grabbing Matthews with one of your last few picks could provide fantasy owners a solid WR3 to start when bye weeks come along, especially if Davis under preforms or gets injured again.

About The Author Mike Fanelli

Mike is a former journalism major who spent all four years in high school working for the school newspaper. At 25 years old, he is happy to write for Breaking Football as it gives him a platform to get his fantasy football takes and sports opinions out there.