Football is back and that means it’s time to throw some cash around. Each week Steve and I, will have our Overs and Unders article via Breaking Football. Each Friday we make our picks consisting of the weekend games and Monday night. These picks will include a summary as to why they are our weekly winners as well as a running record of each pick from Steve and myself. Picks will come from Betonline.ag and Mybookie.ag. Picks will be based off lines and over/under game totals from Thursday night.
Nathan’s Picks: Betonline.ag (0-0)
Pittsburgh is heavily favored in their week one tilt with Cleveland. It’s a safe bet to have them winning big as they bring with them a high-powered offense, led by superstar running back Le’Veon Bell and one of the top wideouts in the league, Antonio Brown. Cleveland is coming off a 1-15 season and just cut starting corner Joe Haden, who signed with Pittsburgh the same day. In addition, they lost their top target Terrelle Pryor via free agency and top overall pick Myles Garrett may miss the season opener with an ankle sprain. The Steelers will pound the ball with Bell and give Brown his fair share of targets. Pitt will also look to get starting receiver Martavis Bryant back up to speed following a year-long suspension from football.
Final Steelers 28, Cleveland 13
Seattle has a date with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers week one and are currently 3 point underdogs. Public money has come in on Seattle who opened at 1.5 point underdogs. Giving the extra point and a half to Green Bay still isn’t enough for me to not pick Seattle, they still have a top five defense and improved their defensive line with the addition of Sheldon Richardson. I expect this line may move a little more and getting the +3 could be a good steal, should Green Bay become heavier favorites.
Final: Seattle 24, Green Bay 20
Oakland comes in as 2.5 point underdogs, I love it. I see Oakland winning against Mariota and the Titans handedly. Derek Carr earned the richest QB contract in history this offseason (until Stafford received his) and has talent on the outside with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree who both totaled over 1,000 yards last season. Oakland also improved their defense with draft pick Gareon Conley to add to a solid pass rush with Khalil Mack and Bruce Irving. Oakland will improve this season and unfortunately for Tennessee they will be the ones who experience it first-hand.
Final: Oakland 31, Tennessee 24
Lock it in Pick
Atlanta will have a chip on their shoulder from the embarrassment of the 28-3 comeback win for New England in Super Bowl 51. Reigning MVP Matt Ryan will look to go out and continue his dominance as he takes on a Bears team that is less than adequate, allowing 224 pass yards per game in 2016 along with 121 yards per game on the ground. Chicago is going to have its hands full with Julio Jones and the two-headed monster at running back that dominated last year scoring a huge 33.8 points per game last year. Not to mention Chicago is going to be starting a career backup who looked dreadful this preseason, I can’t believe the Falcons are only 7 point favorites and I would get in on this before it moves.
Final: Atlanta 38, Chicago 13
Steve’s Picks: Mybookie.ag (0-0)
We are looking at mostly public money shifting this line in Vegas. The public perceives the Washington Redskins to be dysfunctional team without a true general manager. However, the front office had an exceptional offseason using the foundation that former general manager Scot McCloughan left behind. Bettors shouldn’t discount the fact that Kirk Cousins has absolutely torched this Eagles team throughout his career.
The Eagles front seven can be extremely dangerous but their secondary will struggle with the Redskins high powered west coast offense. I think sharp bettors will eventually move this line back to at least a pick em’ and snagging them at +1 could end up being a bargain.
Final: 24 Redskins, 23 Eagles
I’m going with another home underdog this week and for a variety of reasons. Again, we are looking at public money shifting this line rapidly. I expect +2 to end up being a bargain, as this line should shift back closer to a pick em’ later in the week.
As far as game theory, the Cardinals have a ton of turnover on defense. I like the talent they’ve brought in, but it will take time to gel and that could be a tough thing to do on the road against a Matthew Stafford led offense.
Final: 31 Lions, 28 Cardinals
This is more of a gut feeling and not my usual game theory approach. The Carolina Panthers opened up as 4.5 point favorites and garnered 81% of the public tickets. This smells fishy to me because the line has only moved half a point. I expect the Panthers to continue to get most of the public bets and money but I think the sharp side is the actually the 49ers covering in a close game.
Final: 24 Panthers 49ers 21
Lock it in pick
I always love me the home underdogs, especially when they are facing a team coming off that Super Bowl hangover. Despite all the public money landing on the Falcons, the line continues to move towards the Bears side. Vegas clearly thinks this game is going to be close and +7 seems like a ‘gimme’ in week one.